Money is not naked; it is wrapped in an emotional shroud. As an outsider, we succumb to an illusion, and we mistake how minuscule the probability of success really is. Emotions form in the brain, just as crystal-clear, rational thoughts do. In other words: We lack an intuitive grasp of probability. This affects everyone. Therefore, focus on a few things of importance that you can really influence. What is being said here? Example: we condemn the bearers of bad news, due to the negative nature of the message. How do we know they are linked at all? What expectations am I holding about this situation? It is at the core of cooperation between people and a necessary ingredient for economic growth and wealth creation. Would this lead to something guaranteed to be negative? Am I overvaluing this information because it was the first I’d heard? How can I reduce the number of choices here? Absence is much harder to detect than presence. In situations where consequences are large, try to be as rational as possible. At the same time, lower expectations for things you cannot control. What is the expected value or risk? Is this a complex situation, or could I rely some on my emotions? A result of our attraction to plausible stories. Likewise, errors are not randomly distributed. She will never sit down on a hot-stove lid again—and that is well; but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore. What is the past performance behind this claim? Do I have a connection to this in some way? Often exacerbated by giving more detail (narrative fallacy contributes). Are they appropriate? That makes our mistakes predictable, and this fixable to a degree—but only to a degree, never completely. How has it changed? Is there an analogous situation I can rely on? Is my behaviour different because I won this money or got something for free? The turkey problem - he lives a great life until Thanksgiving. Are they crowding other incentives for the people involved here? Well worth the read, and will likely require revisiting when making decisions. Is there a downside if the prediction is wrong? Decision fatigue is perilous: As a consumer, you become more susceptible to advertising messages and impulse buys. Rather, you are the man with the red hat. Dobelli leans heavily on people like Kahneman, Taleb, and others to build this extensive list (99 items!) “To the man with a hammer, every problem is a nail. Even highly … The Art of Thinking Clearly Summary October 9, 2019 November 18, 2020 Luke Rowley Happiness , Mental Health , Mindfulness , Psychology , Self Improvement 1-Sentence-Summary: The Art of Thinking Clearly is a full compendium of the psychological biases that once helped us survive but now only hinder us from living our best life. What information is actually useful here? Reciprocity is a very useful survival strategy, a form of risk management. As a decision maker, you are more prone to erotic seduction. Why is this? What does the market think? How far off is my own prediction from this scenario? Is it actually useful? Willpower is like a battery. We see it in people who have committed a large amount of time and effort to understand a topic. Am I overvaluing my own ideas? Hindsight bias makes us believe we are better predictors than we actually are, causing is to be arrogant about our knowledge and consequently to take too much risk. of things to watch out for. Never cross a river that is “on average” four feet deep. Risk means that the probabilities are known. But we don’t see it that way. Depending on how we get it, we treat it differently. Note: This book covers 99 common cognitive errors we’re facing in everyday life which I didn’t include them all in my reading notes. What test subjects or information has been removed from the sample? We seldom forget uncompleted tasks; they persist in our consciousness and do not let up, tugging at us like little children, until we give them our attention. You can make calculation with risks, but not with uncertainty. Today, things are different. How would I evaluate it if it were available in abundance? And take advantage of positive Black Swans? Am I avoiding an option out of fear or jealousy of someone or something outdoing me? What are the objective upsides and downsides here? Have we expressed our opinions independently? How do we know that one causes the other? Am I falsely increasing my confidence levels because of additional, but useless information? This affects everyone. What anchors might I be using here when I shouldn’t be? Am I well-rested and well-fed? What similar projects can I look at for objective data on my situation? We need no extra cunning, no new ideas, no unnecessary goals, no frantic hyperactivity—all we need is less irrationality. In other words, eliminate errors and better thinking will follow. Dobelli leans heavily on people like Kahneman, Taleb, and others to build this extensive list (99 items!) What are the key factors I want to evaluate? Do I feel obligated to return a favour here? Try Amazon Audible today and get 2 audiobooks (of your choice) for free. Could this information apply to anyone?

How To Revive Bamboo Leaves Turning Yellow, Objective Chemistry For Neet Arihant Pdf, Morning Star Veggie Crumbles Nutrition Facts, Warehouse Signage Requirements, Italian Expressions Of Frustration, Marketing Advice For Startups, Sweet Potato Avocado Cookies, Fuel Wilmette Website, Saint Michael's College Majors, Global Health Solutions, Parish Nurse Certification, Why Does My Food Taste Like The Air Fryer,